Lisbon, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

288
FXUS61 KGYX 110337
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1137 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures continue an upward trend into Tuesday before a
cold front crosses Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A weak
low may bring light snow to portions of the area Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, but high pressure then returns for the
end of the week through the first half of the upcoming weekend
bringing unseasonable warmth for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1145 PM Update... Middle to upper level clouds are beginning to
once again increase across the area, which should slow down
earlier radiational cooling. Made some minor adjustment to
temperature trends but the fcst remains largely unchanged.

Previously...
645 PM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends. A period of radiational cooling is likely through this
evening as the earlier clouds drift towards Penobscot Bay and
eastern ME before additional mid-level clouds arrive later
tonight in association with an approaching sfc warm front.

Previously...
No impactful weather is expected tonight. Southerly return flow
out ahead of an approaching cold front will become established
tonight. This will lead to slightly above normal low
temperatures after a nice warm day across most the
region. Developing low level inversions will allow areas to
mostly cool off into the 20s with warm air advection at 925mb
keeping the mountains warm tonight. Low cloud deck around 4K
will be on the retreat tonight as some high and mid level clouds
stream across Northern and Central areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Very warm day on tap tomorrow with some areas across Southern NH
topping out above 60s degrees with strong warm air advection on
south/southwest flow. The warmth will push all the way to the
Quebec border tomorrow with highs well into the 40s even across
northern interior areas. Dewpoints will reach above freezing and
winds will also be on the increase with deep mixing. This will
be a good melt day and will also weaken remaining ice on the
rivers, but no river rises are expected. With the deep mixing
expect gusts to reach up to 30mph at times during the afternoon
hours. A cold front will begin to push into northern areas by
late evening with light rain showers changing over to a brief
period of light snow. Outside of the mountains, no precipitation
is expected with a dry frontal passage. Winds will quickly turn
northwesterly and cool rapidly back to seasonal normals by
daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
04Z Long Term Update... Latest NBM suite of guidance shows
little change from the previous with a gradual moderating trend
thru the extended and the potential for moderate to heavy
rainfall Sunday night, along with gusty winds. A weak system
could bring some snow showers Wednesday night into early
Thursday but there are still plenty of ensemble members and
deterministic guidance that keeps us dry.

Previously...
Temperatures cool down for Wednesday behind the cold front but
will still be close to normal for highs ranging from the mid 30s
to lower 40s south of the mountains and 20s to low 30s in the
mountains. Mostly sunny conditions are expected much of the day,
but mid/high clouds will start to increase in the afternoon and
early evening ahead of shortwave aloft. Precipitation is not
expected during the day.

The previously mentioned wave moves through Wednesday night and into
the first part of Thursday with potential increasing for a round of
light snow and slick travel for the Thurs. morning commute.
Ensemble probabilities from the GFS/ECMWF have approximately a 20-
40% chance of greater than an inch of snow for areas south of the
mountains with higher probabilities in the mountains. Probabilities
for more than 3" of are currently less than 10%, so confidence is
high that if snow does occur it will be a light event. Once the snow
ends, skies may stay mostly cloudy through the day with drizzle
possible. Temperatures may struggle to get out of the 30s if that
ends up being the case.

Surface high pressure slides east of the region Friday into
Saturday, allowing a warming trend with southerly flow returning.
A ridge of high pressure aloft is expected to keep things mostly dry
as well, but with increasing dewpoints there may be fog and low
clouds to contend with. Highs Friday expected to be in the 40s and
50s and even warmer by Saturday. However, the onshore flow will
likely keep coastal areas cooler.

There`s a strong signal in guidance toward the end of the forecast
period with an upper trough and cold front approaching the East
Coast. This will be the next chance at widespread precipitation
Sunday into Sunday night, and confidence is high enough in the track
of the low far enough north to where it will be warm enough for
mostly if not all rain. The majority of ensemble members at
this point support generally 0.50" to 0.75" of rain with a few
suggesting over an inch of rain possible locally. With
increasing dewpoints, there will probably be fog as well.
Snowmelt, ice movement, and rises in area rivers will all be
possible, and for more specific info, please refer to the
hydrology section below. Latest guidance is in good agreement
with the front clearing the first part of Monday, and should
this pan out, Monday will see a drying trend with breezy W/NW
winds and upslope showers in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected over the next day at all
TAF sites. One exception will be at Whitefield where low
ceilings and scattered rain showers will push in by tomorrow
night. Only weather of concern will be the gusty southwest winds
during the afternoon tomorrow that could impact general aviation
operations.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Wednesday through Saturday, although a
low pressure could bring light snow and flight restrictions
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Return flow over the coastal waters ahead of an
approaching cold front will increase through the day tomorrow
with developing Small Craft Conditions as winds approach up to
30 kts. Cold front pushes through tomorrow night with a wind
shift to the NW and remaining gusty.

Long Term...Northerly winds behind a front could continue to
gust above SCA levels through Wednesday morning, but these will
diminish through the day as high pressure builds in north of the
waters. Conditions look to remain below SCA levels through
Saturday with flow returning to more southerly Saturday into
Sunday with the high sliding east ahead of a low pressure and
cold front that approach from the west on Sunday. Increasing
winds ahead of the front will likely bring a return to small
craft advisory conditions on Sunday, possibly gusts to gale
force, and these conditions may last into Monday behind the
front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A controlled melt is likely this week as temperatures warm into
the 50s for much of the region, with runoff slowing at night as
temps fall below freezing. The slow release of the snowmelt
will keep river rises limited. River ice will likewise undergo
weakening through thermal rot, particularly in southern streams.
Attention turns to a dynamic storm system this weekend that
will spread rainfall over the region, resulting in more rapid
snowmelt late Sunday into Sunday night. There remains much
uncertainty in rainfall totals with the potential for over an
inch particularly in the south facing slopes of the White
Mountains. With gusty S winds and high dewpoints around 50 the
melt rate will accelerate over a ripened snowpack, with
snowmelt loss of 1-2" runoff possible. The combination of rain,
snowmelt and weakened river ice due to thermal rot, will cause
river rises sufficient to break-up and move river ice,
increasing the threat for ice jam flooding by Monday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Dumont
LONG TERM...Combs/Tubbs